by Roger Lilley, Energize

Businesstech reports that South Africa’s National Energy Crisis Committee (Necom), a body run by the office of President Cyril Ramaphosa, expects record power outages to ease as measures are put in place, including a new law to fast-track plant development, and take effect.

The committee, of which several cabinet ministers are members, told business and labour leaders on Monday (16 January) that a range of interventions have been made at a time when South Africans was enduring blackouts of as much as 12 hours a day.

“As these measures take effect, the supply of electricity will significantly improve,” Necom said in a presentation sent to Bloomberg by Ramaphosa’s office. 

But will it? We're skeptical.

South Africa’s government has faced sharp criticism after power cuts were imposed on over 200 days last year and every day in 2023 so far. Ramaphosa cancelled his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos to hold crisis talks with power utility Eskom, labour groups and business.

The measures that Necom said may ease the crisis include:

• Private generation: The first of more than 100 privately owned power plants being developed will connect to the grid by the end of this year. In total, the planned projects could produce 9000 MW, much of it for the companies’ own use.
• Emergency legislation: Laws are being developed to allow the faster approval and development of power plants.
• REIPPPP projects: Contracts for the construction of plants that will produce 2800 MW of renewable energy for the grid have been signed and construction will soon begin.
• Imported power: 1000 MW may be imported this year from neighbouring countries, and Eskom will buy 1000 MW of excess energy from private producers who already have facilities.
• Focus attention on the best performers: Six of Eskom’s 14 coal-fired power plants have been “identified for particular focus” in a bid to get them to perform more reliably.
• Complete the new-builds: Efforts to finish incomplete plants and maintenance of other major units are being made.
• Cut the red tape: The time to complete regulatory processes for new plants has been reduced.

Unfortunately its easy to be cynical about such plans.

It's wonderful that the President has got involved - or has he?

Wasn't Ramaphosa the chairperson the Eskom War Room established in 2015 to combat Eskom's inability to provide reliable electricity to the country? That was the year when Eskom imposed 97 days of load shedding.

At the time, Cabinet adopted a five-point plan to address the electricity challenges facing the country.

And certainly something helped because there was no load shedding to 2016 and 2017. 

But the wheels started coming off in 2018 when there were 14 days of load shedding. Then, in November 2018, the CEO of Eskom, Pakamani Hadebe, announced his 9-point plan which, he said, would help the utility " to overcome problems in its generation division and enable the power utility to meet its obligations to provide a reliable supply of electricity to South Africa’s industries and residents, as per its mandate." In other words, reduce the amount of hours of load shedding.

At the time, load shedding was a nuisance not a disaster. In 2017 there was no load shedding, and in 2018 there was load shedding on 14 days in the entire year. Yet the CEO took steps to pl,an an improvement. What happened?

If the nine-point plan was as good as it was touted to be, and if it was implemented as planned, why did load shedding increase in 2019 to 30 days, in 2020 to 54 days, in 2021 to 75 days, and in 2022 to 208 days?

Since 2015, we have not had more than 8 days of load shedding in January - this year we've had load shedding every day (17 days so far).

So we've had Cabinet's 5-point plan, Eskom's 9-point plan, and now Ramaphosa's 7-point plan to end load shedding - and still, load shedding is getting worse. Moreover, experts tell us to expect far worse levels of load shedding in the days, months and years ahead. One wonders why anyone should believe that the latest plan will really solve the problem. 

Send your comments to rogerl@nowmedia.co.za