South Africa has reached a milestone of 36 consecutive days without load shedding, with Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, saying the end of load shedding is “within touching distance”. But winter is coming.

Eskom achieved an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 65,5% on Wednesday, May 1. “This confirms the success of the aggressive maintenance-led recovery strategy”. Unplanned outages reached 10 966 MW.

The return of Medupi Unit 4 (800MW), Koeberg Unit 2 (980MW) and the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 6 (800MW), a total of 2 580 MW in the next six months, will add to generation capacity, Ramokgopa said.

A ‘mild’ winter

But load shedding is not over.

Eskom anticipates limiting load shedding to Stage 2 during the colder months, with reduced unplanned outages expected to range from 14 000 MW to 15 500 MW and a maximum of 17 000 MW of unplanned outages at Stage 5 load shedding.

This is a marked improvement from the previous year, the utility company said at a briefing last week. “We consciously increased planned maintenance during the summer months of 2023/24 to an average of 8 000 MW. The peak of planned maintenance was executed between December 2023 and January 2024, where we reached an average of 18% of the generation capacity. The last time we saw a similar surge in planned maintenance was around November and December 2020,” said Eskom Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.

He added that Eskom would focus on addressing “contributors of the unreliability of [its] plants”. “Remaining within this range of unplanned outages will enable us to maintain load shedding at lower stages throughout the winter,” Marokane said.

Eskom will use its peaking stations strategically, including the open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). These turbines are typically dispatched to meet the high electricity demand during the morning and evening peaks.

“As far as the OCGTs are concerned, the system operator (SO) strives to operate them for the shortest possible duration, especially as our coal generation fleet becomes more reliable. Compared to April 2023, we have spent 50% less on diesel in April 2024,” Eskom said in a statement.

The Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which has incorporated various independent reviews of generation operations, including those from the recently published VGBe report, and the investment in planned maintenance during the summer period, has contributed to the optimistic outlook, Eskom said. This includes:

• A 9% reduction in unplanned load losses from April 2023 to March 2024.
• A 19,2% reduction in unit trips between the 2023 and 2024 financial years, indicating an increasingly more reliable generation fleet and availability of power supply.
• The restoration of three Kusile units offline since October 2022 and the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 5 collectively contributed an additional 3 200 MW to the grid from September to December 2023.
• The successful completion of the Koeberg Unit 1 steam generator replacement as part of the Long-Term Operation project has restored 930MW of generation capacity.
• Progress on several projects aimed at minimising Partial Load Losses, including the cooling tower refurbishments at Kriel and Tutuka and re-bagging at Majuba, with the completion of Tutuka units 1 & 2.