Information from Oxford University

• 'Far be it for Global North nations to tell global south actors what to do with assets'
• 'With costs of renewables falling … assets are likely to become economically worthless'

The United Nations’ High Level Expert Group (HLEG) has issued a tough report, aimed at preventing net zero being undermined by false claims and ‘greenwashing’, while encouraging climate action – as new data from Oxford’s Net Zero Tracker shows most net zero promises made by companies, cities and regions are not on track.

A member of the HLEG, Oxford academic, Dr Jessica Omukuti, a research fellow on Inclusive Net Zero for Oxford’s Net Zero initiative, welcomed the UN report, pointing out, ‘The HLEG recommendations link equity and justice to the determination of credibility of net zero commitment, for instance, by encouraging large corporations to set targets and implement measures that are in line with their fair share of emission and demanding that net zero strategies respect human rights, invest in nature restoration and protect local and indigenous communities.’

Meanwhile, today’s data from Oxford's Net Zero Tracker shows, in the 25 highest emitting regions: 60% of companies and over 80% of cities and regions still do not have a net zero target.

Professor Thomas Hale, professor in public policy at Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, who co-leads the tracker, says, ‘The HLEG report crystalizes what is now a clear set of best practices on net zero: cover all your emissions, set near-term targets, publish your plan and update on progress, do not use offsets to delay or substitute for reduction, get there by 2050, etc. This gives companies, investors, cities, regions—and, by implication, countries—a clear statement of what “good” looks like. We need to be clear that most entities setting net zero targets are not yet on track. Data from the Net Zero Tracker shows, for example, that only half of companies setting net zero targets have published robust plans, and a similar portion have not said whether or how they will use offsets to reach their targets. Perhaps even more significantly, three in five of the world’s largest listed companies have yet to set a net zero target.’

Professor Hale adds, ‘Companies are under pressure in opposite directions. On the one hand, the science and economic facts are driving them toward faster climate action. On the other hand, we see pushback against “woke capitalism” growing, especially in the US. Companies need to be clear on where they stand; today’s report shows them what’s needed to get on the right side of this transition.’

Extra: click here for Prof. Hale's Twitter feed with replies

Oxford experts responding to events in Egypt

Philip Trotter, an expert in electrification in sub-Saharan Africa and honorary research associate, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said, ‘There is almost no country-specific evidence, and especially no African-led research, on the short and long-term economic and social implications of large-scale natural gas investments in Africa. More research is needed to understand and weigh benefits and risks of these investments for African development. In general, countries investing into new domestic gas infrastructure now may benefit economically in the short-term but exposing themselves to large long-term economic risks. With costs of renewables falling, many of these assets are likely to become economically worthless before their intended lifetime. In addition, the majority of new natural gas from Africa is for export, but the Global North needs quickly to reduce its natural gas demand to meet its climate targets, so it is unclear how long Africa can bank on these exports and compete on international gas markets.’

Kaya Axxelson, research assistant, the Smith School, said: ‘Far be it for Global North nations to tell global south actors what to do with their assets. Whether it's a good idea for economic reasons is another question. ‘In some places it may not be wise to build new gas infrastructure that gets stranded and locks them into a cycle of debt, especially when renewables may be a cheaper and safer option. What I really worry about is who is building these projects as we see a poor track record of fossil fuel companies from the global north exploiting moments like this by setting up unfair contracts that lock developing nations into paying when projects run over budget, or whose presence in those regions holds back climate legislation in those nations (again an issue of national sovereignty). Long term, new fossil fuel infrastructure will not solve the twin problems of equity between nations nor improve climate resilience in those places likely to be most impacted.’

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