Eskom’s recent performance presents the promise of a load shedding-free summer season. This optimistic outlook follows a successful winter when the power utility achieved five consecutive months without load shedding.
The Generation Operational Recovery Plan, initiated in March 2023, has improved Eskom’s efficiency and fleet performance, said Dan Marokane, Eskom’s Group CEO, at the State of Eskom’s Business and Summer Outlook media briefing on August 26.
“Eskom surpassed its planned maintenance target of 3 677 MW, achieving an average of 4 799 MW during winter. Based on the improved generation performance, the base case scenario indicates that there will be no load shedding this summer if unplanned outages stay at 13 000 MW or below,” he pointed out.
Reduced reliance on open-cycle gas turbines led to a 74% decrease in diesel costs, saving over R10 billion. If this performance continues, Eskom could contribute around 2% to economic growth, Marokane added.
Other highlights of Eskom’s winter performance include an average unplanned capacity loss factor of 12 400 MW, representing a 20% improvement compared to the previous period. Furthermore, the energy availability factor increased from 57% in April to 67% by July.
The revised summer outlook was adjusted downward by 1 500 MW from the previous year, reflecting a more stable operating environment. If unplanned outages increase to 14 000 MW, Stage 1 load shedding may be necessary. Outages of 15 000 MW could result in Stage 2.
The power utility is planning to add approximately 2 500 MW of generation capacity by January 2025, said Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom Group Executive: Generation. “Koeberg nuclear power station’s Unit 2 is expected to return to service later this year, adding 930 MW to the grid. Kusile Unit 6 will synchronise with the grid for the first time in December, adding 800 MW of capacity. The return of Medupi Unit 4 after an extended outage will add another 800 MW before the financial year end.”
By restoring capacity to the power grid, Eskom has halted power outages and established a reserve in case there are delays in bringing additional units back online, added Nxumalo. “The impacts will be much less severe, especially as we continue to focus on increasing the generation capacity of the fleet.”
He said the power utility is also focusing on reducing municipal arrears, improving measures to tackle crime and corruption and developing a proficient workforce to ensure its long-term success.
In addition, Eskom is advancing plans for the legal separation of its operations, establishing independent generation and distribution subsidiaries and launching 2 000 MW of clean energy projects as part of its sustainable energy strategy.
